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UK Economic Forecast

This report considers the outlook for the UK economy based on the views of ICAEW Chartered Accountants running all types of businesses across the UK, surveyed through the quarterly ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor (BCM).

"Q1
Q1 2017 UK Economic Forecast

Q1 2017 report

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Key findings this quarter

The UK economy moves into its post-Brexit era with a good degree of economic momentum, and with some signs that growth is becoming a little more balanced across sectors. But uncertainty over the eventual settlement with the EU seems likely to restrain investment in 2017, which may affect the pace of growth in the longer term. With business investment set to shrink by 1.9% in 2017, the recent rush for growth among businesses is only sustainable in the short-term.

  • Slower though still respectable growth in 2017, close to the average from 2010-2013.
  • Business investment on hold in 2017, until the impact of Brexit negotiations on the UK economy become clear.
  • Easing but still relatively robust labour market; thus ensuring it remains relatively tight.
  • Falling real wages for the first time since 2013, meaning wages will fall in real terms for the first time since 2013.

Key findings report and press release