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  • Publish date: 22 February 2017
  • Archived on: 22 February 2018

For those of you glad to see the back of 2016, the bad news, warns Jon Moulton, is there will be more of the same in the rest of this year – or it might get even worse.

Experts and forecasters had a bad 2016. The pollsters have a flawed business model – as demonstrated by the outcomes of the Brexit vote in the UK and the US presidential election. Both of these outcomes will weigh heavily on what is in store for the world in the rest of 2017.

The UK Treasury and the Bank of England did their credibility no good whatsoever, with their complex forecasts of a post-Brexit economic nuclear winter proving to be of astrological value. I think the world is less safe with Trump at the helm. He and his cohort of ageing billionaires and investment bankers could do anything. Head-to-head confrontations with China or Russia, or both, are certainly very possible.

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