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Interest rates set for August loosening despite disconcertingly high inflation, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Jul 2025

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the UK inflation figures for June 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 16 July 2025):

“These figures confirm that cost pressures on households and businesses remain disconcertingly high as rising fuel and food prices helped drag inflation further away from the Bank of England’s 2% target.

“While strong services and core inflation suggest that underlying price pressures remain a little too sticky, the squeeze from a flagging economy and weakening jobs market should put them on a downward path.

“June’s uptick is the start of a slight summer surge in inflation with skyrocketing business costs and global trade turbulence likely to lift the headline rate moderately higher by the autumn, despite July’s drop in energy bills.

“While June’s hot inflation won’t deter policymakers from sanctioning an August policy loosening, given mounting worries over economic conditions, these figures may increase caution over the pace of future rate cuts.”  

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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