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Autumn Statement could significantly alter inflation outlook, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Nov 2022

Responding to the UK inflation figures for October 2022, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 16 November 2022), Suren Thiru, Economics Director for ICAEW, said:

“October’s hefty rise in inflation, fuelled by another punishing jump in energy bills, is pulling us closer to a damaging recession.

“Although it’s possible that the headline rate has now peaked, the Autumn Statement could significantly alter the outlook for inflation. While major spending cuts and tax rises could choke off demand in the economy, last month’s inflationary surge could be surpassed in April if the Chancellor substantially scales back the energy support package.

“With inflation skyrocketing, another big interest rate rise in December looks likely. However, with a looming recession, tighter fiscal policy and stronger sterling set to subdue inflation, the case for aggressively tightening monetary policy should fade.”