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Flatlining economy provides Autumn Statement headache, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 10 Nov 2023

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the latest UK GDP figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 10 November 2023):

“Flatlining quarterly UK GDP suggests that our economy lost momentum as the squeeze from inflation and higher borrowing costs suffocated output. 

“The UK economy is in a tough period, with the lagged impact of previous interest rate rises, an onerous tax burden and a weakening jobs market likely to weigh heavily on GDP in the fourth quarter.

“A stuttering economy makes the Autumn Statement more difficult because it means weak tax receipts for the government, while any notable fiscal loosening risks refuelling inflation pressures.

“These downbeat GDP figures suggests the Bank of England may have overdone the interest rate rises, and with that, the case for rate setters to pivot towards loosening policy is likely to strengthen.”


Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com 07866 853841