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August rate cut inevitable following May’s disheartening GDP decline, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 11 Jul 2025

Responding to the latest UK GDP figures for May 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 11 July 2025), Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, said:

“These downbeat figures undoubtedly increase anxiety over the health of the UK economy, with tumbling construction and manufacturing activity causing a disheartening decline in overall output.

“May’s downbeat outturn means a contraction in GDP across the second quarter looks a racing certainty, as sinking business confidence amid intensifying geopolitical turmoil will have dampened growth in June, despite a boost from the warm weather.

“The UK’s growth trajectory in the near term is likely to tilt downwards as any uplift from higher consumer and government spending is hampered by escalating business caution, amid fears of further tax rises in this Autumn’s Budget.

“The lack of momentum in the UK economy indicated by these sluggish figures means that an August interest rate cut currently looks inevitable, despite the recent spike in inflation.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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