ICAEW.com works better with JavaScript enabled.

July inflation spike extinguishes hope of a September rate cut, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 20 Aug 2025

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the UK inflation figures for July 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 20 August 2025):

“These figures underscore the intensifying financial squeeze on households and businesses as a summer holiday spike in food and flight costs helped push inflation uncomfortably higher, despite July’s drop in energy bills.

“Increasing services inflation suggests that rising National Insurance and National Living Wage costs are exacerbating underlying price pressures by more than offsetting the current downward squeeze from looser labour market conditions.

“While spiralling business costs and food prices may mean that inflation peaks higher than the Bank of England’s prediction of 4%, it should start decelerating in the autumn as a weaker economy increasingly bears down on prices.

“July’s outturn probably extinguishes hope of a September interest rate cut, while strengthening underlying inflationary pressures calls into question whether policymakers will be able to relax policy again this year.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

About ICAEW

Chartered accountants are talented, ethical and committed professionals. ICAEW represents more than 208,000 members and students around the world.

Founded in 1880, ICAEW has a long history of serving the public interest and we continue to work with governments, regulators and business leaders globally. And, as a world-leading improvement regulator, we supervise and monitor around 12,000 firms, holding them, and all ICAEW members and students, to the highest standards of professional competency and conduct.

We promote inclusivity, diversity and fairness and we give talented professionals the skills and values they need to build resilient businesses, economies and societies, while ensuring our planet’s resources are managed sustainably.

ICAEW is the first major professional body to be carbon neutral, demonstrating our commitment to tackle climate change and supporting UN Sustainable Development Goal 13.

ICAEW is a founding member of Chartered Accountants Worldwide (CAW), a global family that connects more than 1.8m chartered accountants and students in more than 190 countries. Together, we support, develop and promote the role of chartered accountants as trusted business leaders, difference makers and advisers.

We believe that chartered accountancy can be a force for positive change. By sharing our insight, expertise and understanding we can help to create sustainable economies and a better future for all.

Further information

Contact us
Swoop background image
Media relations

Our Media Relations team can be contacted for comment, opinion and information on issues affecting the accountancy profession, business and the wider economy.

Find out more
About ICAEW
Diverse group of people looking up
Who we are

As a global professional body for chartered accountants, we ensure all our chartered accountants have the knowledge and values to help build local and global economies that are sustainable, accountable and fair.

Find out more