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September rate cut a non-starter despite wilting jobs market, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Sep 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 16 September 2025):

“These figures suggest that the UK’s jobs market is wilting under the weight of a stagnating economy and skyrocketing staffing costs as more businesses look to shrink their workforce in response to these twin headwinds.

“While the pace at which pay growth is slowing remains painfully pedestrian, its current downward trajectory should gather momentum over the autumn as the eyewatering financial squeeze on businesses takes its toll on pay awards.

“The UK’s labour market is likely to encounter more adverse turbulence in the coming months as surging costs for businesses and weaker customer demand amid a slowing economy could mean the unemployment rate soon tops 5%.

“An interest rate cut on Thursday remains a non-starter as the speed at which the labour market is loosening at present won’t be enough to trigger another policy loosening, given growing anxiety over increasing inflation.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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