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Suren Thiru: September rate cut off the table despite dispiriting July GDP slowdown

Author: ICAEW

Published: 12 Sep 2025

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for July 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 12 September 2025): 

“These figures suggest that the economy lost power in July, as surging cost pressures and global turbulence helped suffocate manufacturing activity in particular, wiping out the boost from the women’s Euros. 

“July’s slowdown is probably the start of a more restrained period for the economy with higher inflation and rising job losses likely to have stifled activity in August, despite an expected uplift from the warm weather. 

“Weaker growth leading into the Autumn Budget is problematic for the Chancellor as less revenue likely means a notable fiscal shortfall for the government and given that their borrowing costs remain elevated, further tax rises look imminent.

“Despite these dispiriting figures, a September policy loosening remains off the table with the Monetary Policy Committee likely to be sufficiently worried over rising inflation to resist sanctioning back-to-back interest rate cuts.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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