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Triple whammy of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and rising gilt yields squeeze the public purse

Author: ICAEW

Published: 22 Sep 2026

Henning Diederichs, ICAEW Director for Public Sector, responded to the UK public sector finance figures for August 2026, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 22 September 2026)

“Today’s numbers show that the deficit for August was higher than expected, with a triple whammy of geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation and rising gilt yields squeezing the public purse.

“While borrowing for the five months to August was lower than a year ago, it was £8bn over budget. With limited headroom it remains challenging for the Chancellor to both increase public spending significantly and stay within the government’s existing fiscal rules.

“Though geopolitical events are outside the Chancellor’s control, the Budget is an opportunity for him to take charge where he can. We’re urging him to take this opportunity to bring clarity to the fiscal headroom available and stabilise the public finances to avoid market surprises, reduce pressure on future generations and help reduce debt interest costs.”

ENDS

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* includes parent companies. Source: ICAEW member data March 2026, Interbrand, Best Global Brands 2025.

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