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Damaging hit to UK jobs market unlikely to deliver June rate cut, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 10 Jun 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 10 June 2025):

“These figures suggest that the UK’s jobs market took a damaging hit from ‘Awful April’, with the tough reality of sharply rising National Insurance and National Living Wage costs pushing more employers to cut staff.

“This decline in pay growth should gather pace over the summer with weaker economic conditions and elevated employment costs likely to accelerate the downward pressure on wages, aided by the longstanding problems with poor productivity.

“The UK’s labour market is in a painful period with eye-wateringly high business costs likely to mean more job losses this year, particularly if the Spending Review increases the odds of more tax hikes in the Autumn Budget.

“Weakening labour market conditions is unlikely to be enough to sway policymakers to cut interest rates this month given April’s resurgence in inflation and deepening global uncertainty.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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