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Downbeat GDP paves way for December rate cut amid unavoidable Budget tax rises, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 13 Nov 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Thursday 13 November 2025):

“These figures confirm that the UK economy has precious little momentum ahead of the Budget, as sinking business confidence and skyrocketing cost pressures helped suppress activity across the third quarter, underscored by September’s downbeat outturn.

“Consumers and businesses endured another difficult quarter as higher taxes and heightened uncertainty triggered a renewed reluctance to spend, invest and trade, while government spending slackened unexpectedly.

“GDP growth in the final quarter may be similarly anaemic with the prolonged uncertainty caused by the later than usual timing of the Budget and higher unemployment likely to restrain activity, particularly given looming tax rises.

“The UK’s unrelentingly sluggish growth trajectory is a headache for the Chancellor as it will inevitably mean a substantial fiscal shortfall at the Budget, making major tax hikes look unavoidable.

“These disappointing figures pave the way for a December interest rate cut by fuelling fears over economic conditions sufficiently enough to push a majority of rate-setters to authorise another policy loosening.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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