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Slowly-suffocating jobs market unlikely to trigger November rate cut, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 14 Oct 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 14 October 2025).

“These figures suggest that the UK’s jobs market is slowly suffocating, as skyrocketing employment costs and a sluggish economy triggers more organisations to limit headcount and restrain pay growth.

“The continued decline in job vacancies offers an ominous indication of the health of the labour market as it suggests that demand for staff is sinking amid growing uncertainty and the intensifying financial squeeze on firms.

“The UK’s employment outlook remains fraught with difficulties as sinking business confidence and rising cost pressures may mean that unemployment drifts a little higher from here, particularly given mounting fears over more tax hikes in November’s Budget.

“Despite these underwhelming figures, the pace at which wider labour market conditions and particularly wage growth are slowing is unlikely to be rapid enough to push a majority of rate setters to sanction a November rate cut.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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