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Suren Thiru: Budget casting long shadow over the economy amid meagre August GDP

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Oct 2025

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for August 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Thursday 16 October 2025):

“This dishearteningly meagre return to growth will do little to allay fears over the wellbeing of the UK economy, with higher manufacturing output masking weaker activity in other sectors, notably services and construction.

“August’s increase is unlikely to have triggered a noteworthy pickup in economic growth across the third quarter with higher inflation and free-falling business confidence expected to have restrained output in September.

“November’s Budget is casting a long shadow over the UK economy with growing worries over more tax rises likely to prompt greater caution among consumers and businesses to spend and invest throughout the Autumn.

“While a rate cut next month looks improbable, these anaemic figures mean it’s not quite a done deal as it gives those rate setters worried over economic conditions with more encouragement to vote to relax policy.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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