“February’s unchanged inflation is a false flag for the economy as these figures pre-date the eyewatering energy shock induced by the Middle East conflict and the subsequent financial pain facing consumers and businesses.
“Though elevated services and core inflation means the UK is more vulnerable to the inflationary fallout from the Iran war, as it confirms that underlying price pressures were already stubborn entering this crisis, the squeeze from higher unemployment should limit any second-round effects.
“While inflation should fall next month as the cut to green levies temporarily lowers energy bills, a brutal inflation surge looms with skyrocketing oil and gas costs likely to lift the headline rate above 4% by the summer.
“Though the hawkish tilt to last week’s policy decision means another interest rate cut this year currently looks impossible, the likelihood of rate rises has been dramatically overstated as the damage to growth from the conflict will likely lower inflation over time.”
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Chartered accountants are talented, ethical and committed professionals. ICAEW represents more than 210,000 members and students around the world. 98 of the top 100 global brands employ ICAEW Chartered Accountants.* 87% of FTSE 100 companies, and 81% of FTSE 250 companies in the UK, have an ICAEW member on their board.
Founded in 1880, ICAEW has a long history of serving the public interest and we continue to work with governments, regulators and business leaders globally. And, as a world-leading improvement regulator, we supervise and monitor around 11,000 firms, holding them, and all ICAEW members and students, to the highest standards of professional competency and conduct.
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ICAEW is a founding member of Chartered Accountants Worldwide (CAW), a global family that connects over 1.8m chartered accountants and students in more than 190 countries. Together, we support, develop and promote the role of chartered accountants as trusted business leaders, difference makers and advisers.
We believe that chartered accountancy can be a force for positive change. By sharing our insight, expertise and understanding we can help to create sustainable economies and a better future for all.
* includes parent companies. Source: ICAEW member data March 2025, Interbrand, Best Global Brands 2024.
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