Mohammed Hammouda, Trade Compliance Manager, EOS IT Solutions, Geoffrey de Mowbray, Chair at British Exporters Association and founder and CEO at Dints International, and Alex Baulf, Vice President, Global Indirect Tax and e-Invoicing, Avalara, are experts in assessing the risks and rewards associated with new trading opportunities.
Assessing new trading opportunities is not easy, particularly when global conditions are uncertain. Political instability is a considerable risk, alongside common trading risks such as fluctuations in currency, supply chain disruption and compliance challenges.
Hammouda, de Mowbray and Baulf offer a step-by-step process for SMEs considering importing or exporting into new territories.
Step 1: Know the law
“Start with the law,” Hammouda advises. “If it’s prohibited, it’s out. If a licence is possible, weigh expected profit against approval likelihood, time and compliance cost.”
He urges getting the basics right; ensuring correct harmonised system (HS) codes and customs values (the economic value of imported goods for calculating duties and taxes), checking free trade agreement rules of origin, and keeping evidence to support preferential tariff claims.
Step 2: Identify opportunities
Different industries offer different risk profiles and opportunities, so achieving an insights edge is paramount. This involves seeking diverse perspectives and industry collective wisdom, along with deep market analysis and consistent analysis of real-time data and competitor information.
“Know what you’re selling, where it’s going and who the real buyer is,” says Hammouda. “Screen against sanctions and flag any deal that could be diverted to a high-risk country.”
Uncertainty has always been part of exporting, adds de Mowbray; it’s what creates opportunity. When global conditions shift, new gaps and inefficiencies appear, and that’s where agile SMEs can really thrive. “Whether through distributors or partners on the ground, it’s about understanding how business really gets done in that country. Imagine yourself at home there. Human-to-human contact remains the foundation of trade, whatever the technology or geopolitics around it.”
Step 3: Understand the risks, develop a strategy
Hammouda says businesses should have “a standing plan B; alternative routes and suppliers, plus time and cash buffers sized for realistic worst-case delays.”
De Mowbray recommends building flexibility into contracts. “Nurture a mix of local and international partners and use digital tools for visibility and agility.”
Investing in technology, such as AI and machine learning, can help improve market forecasting. Baulf says technology “gives us the visibility to turn uncertainty into insight.”
“By understanding real-time tax and customs compliance and trade flows, we can assess risk quickly and act decisively, finding opportunity where others only see volatility,” says Baulf. Equally, he says businesses must monitor sanctions and export controls linked to conflict or strategic sectors, knowing that political pressure may lead to tighter border checks or protectionism.
Flexibility in trading portfolios can reduce exposure to unexpected events that affect trade, such as conflict, geopolitical shifts or catastrophic climate events.
De Mowbray advocates talking to peers for greater understanding of the risks: “Other exporters often have the most current, unfiltered insight into what’s really happening in a market.”
To further develop a strategy, de Mowbray says SMEs should map dependencies on single suppliers, routes or currencies, and use tools, such as export credit insurance or government-backed finance to build resilience: “The world is changing fast, but the fundamentals of due diligence, partnerships and preparation never go out of date.”
Step 4: Manage security issues
“Security spans more than cyber; it includes physical, operational and reputational dimensions,” says de Mowbray.
In higher-risk areas, he advises working with security partners for enhanced safety. He also recommends peer-to-peer support networks to share intelligence and stay alert to emerging issues.
“Avoid sanctioned parties and protect sensitive data or dual-use tech, in your IT systems and in transit, with clear chain-of-custody,” says Hammouda.
Baulf advocates strong authentication and access controls to prevent fraud, plus encryption for sensitive data in mandated e-invoicing and live reporting.
“Ultimately, security comes down to trusted relationships – knowing who you’re dealing with and ensuring those connections are strong and transparent,” de Mowbray says.
Step 5: Diversify your markets
The best antidote to volatility is diversification, according to de Mowbray: “SMEs trading across multiple regions often find their overall business becomes more predictable, not less, because shocks in one area are balanced by stability in another.”
Baulf says SMEs should not wait for perfect conditions, instead identifying markets and trading partners “that align with their long-term capabilities” and use technology for decisions “based on data, compliance and agility.”
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