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Nature scenario analysis: Practical insights for building resilient business and finance

Author: Toby Roxburgh

Published: 09 Jul 2025

ICAEW has created a briefing, Nature Scenario Analysis for Resilient Business and Finance, in partnership with the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business at Lancaster University.

Scenario analysis is a key part of the business toolkit, providing insights into how nature-related risks and opportunities may evolve in the future, helping to inform risk management, strategy and reporting.

Yet this powerful tool is still underutilised. This briefing draws on the real-world experiences of businesses and financial institutions that are grappling with how to get started.

Through a series of sector-specific and cross-sector roundtables, participants from across the UK economy shared their challenges, insights and ideas. The result is a set of practical, peer-informed recommendations to help accelerate the uptake of nature scenario analysis.

The briefing is aimed at ICAEW members, business leaders, policymakers and other stakeholders working on this agenda. It outlines four key action areas:

  1. Making the case for nature scenario analysis
  2. Demystifying the approach and building capacity
  3. Developing robust frameworks
  4. Improving access to data, models and tools

The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) has also highlighted the untapped potential of scenario analysis to help organisations understand the financial effects of nature-related risks - see its recent review.

Get in touch

Toby Roxburgh, ICAEW Nature & Biodiversity Manager