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Budget the last obstacle to December rate cut following October inflation fall, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 19 Nov 2025

Responding to the UK inflation figures for October 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 19 November 2025), Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, said: “While these figures may fuel optimism that UK inflation has turned a corner, this decline is more reflective of a smaller uptick in October’s energy bills compared to a year ago than evidence that households’ financial worries are easing.

“October’s slowdown is the start of a winter inflation wind-down with lower food and fuel costs likely to pull the headline rate below 3% early next year, despite persistent pricing pressures from elevated employment costs.

“The Budget is a double-edged sword for inflation as while tax rises can be deflationary by dampening demand in the economy, the upward pressure from any rise in business costs risks giving inflation a second wind.

“Though the conditions for a December interest rate cut are falling into place, the Budget is a last obstacle as rate-setters will want to gauge the effect of the policies announced before authorising another rate reduction.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

About ICAEW 

Chartered accountants are talented, ethical and committed professionals. ICAEW represents more than 210,000 members and students around the world. 98 of the top 100 global brands employ ICAEW Chartered Accountants.* 87% of FTSE 100 companies, and 81% of FTSE 250 companies in the UK, have an ICAEW member on their board.

Founded in 1880, ICAEW has a long history of serving the public interest and we continue to work with governments, regulators and business leaders globally. And, as a world-leading improvement regulator, we supervise and monitor around 11,000 firms, holding them, and all ICAEW members and students, to the highest standards of professional competency and conduct.

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* includes parent companies. Source: ICAEW member data March 2025, Interbrand, Best Global Brands 2024.

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