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December rate cut more likely as pre-Budget jitters hit labour market, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 11 Nov 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 11 November 2025):

“These figures suggest that the UK’s labour market is suffering from pre-Budget jitters, as businesses already weakened by April’s rise in national insurance look to cut recruitment further in anticipation of another difficult Budget.

“This weakening in wage growth is likely to accelerate over the winter as the downward pressure from an ailing economy, significant staffing costs and more job losses increasingly restrains pay awards.

“The jobs market could bear the brunt of Budget tax rises as weaker customer demand, amid a possible income tax hike and increasing costs on business, may mean higher unemployment than the Bank of England currently predicts.

“These underwhelming figures add credence to the more dovish tilt to last week’s policy decision and the current rate at which the labour market is loosening notably increases the chances of a December interest rate cut.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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