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Interest rate cut inevitable amid unravelling labour market, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Dec 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 16 December 2025):

“The UK’s jobs market visibly buckled ahead of the Budget as the unrelenting uncertainty from a torrent of policy speculation and a slumping economy forced more firms to reduce recruitment and curb wage settlements.

“Pay growth should continue easing over the coming months as the squeeze from surging staffing costs and rising unemployment further weakens workers’ negotiating position, despite some upward pressure from the forthcoming minimum wage hike.

“The UK labour market is facing a harsh winter with a perfect storm of surging business costs, including the impending minimum wage rise, and declining customer demand likely to lift unemployment unnervingly higher from here.

“The concerning pace at which the labour market is unravelling means that an interest rate cut on Thursday looks inevitable as these figures will undoubtably aggravate concerns over the strength of economic conditions.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

About ICAEW 

Chartered accountants are talented, ethical and committed professionals. ICAEW represents more than 210,000 members and students around the world. 98 of the top 100 global brands employ ICAEW Chartered Accountants.* 87% of FTSE 100 companies, and 81% of FTSE 250 companies in the UK, have an ICAEW member on their board.

Founded in 1880, ICAEW has a long history of serving the public interest and we continue to work with governments, regulators and business leaders globally. And, as a world-leading improvement regulator, we supervise and monitor around 11,000 firms, holding them, and all ICAEW members and students, to the highest standards of professional competency and conduct.

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* includes parent companies. Source: ICAEW member data March 2025, Interbrand, Best Global Brands 2024.

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