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Second quarter GDP slowdown unlikely to sway Monetary Policy Committee, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 14 Aug 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for June 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Thursday 14 August 2025):

“The economy lost some momentum in the second quarter as several sectors weakened under pressure from ‘awful April’s’ surge in costs and the explosion of global trade turbulence, despite a robust return to growth in June.

“Following the bumper first three months of 2025, this second quarter slowdown offers a more authentic insight into the UK’s underlying growth path given persistent problems with anaemic productivity and poor public finances.

“The UK’s economic performance in the third quarter may be similarly modest with higher inflation and anxiety over more tax hikes in this Autumn’s Budget likely to mean more caution on spending, despite lower interest rates.

“While these stronger than expected figures may not ease concerns among rate-setters over the health of the UK economy, a September interest rate cut remains implausible given mounting concerns over rising inflation.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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