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Tariff turbulence makes May rate cut more likely despite strong February GDP uptick, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 11 Apr 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for February 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 11 April 2025):

“Though activity rebounded strongly as services and manufacturing output rallied, February’s figures have been pushed firmly into the background by the financial market bedlam caused by Trump’s tariff announcements.

“February’s uptick should mean a notably positive first quarter for the UK economy, with modest growth in March likely, possibly aided by a temporary boost from some companies bringing forward activity ahead of new US tariffs taking effect.

“Despite Trump’s partial tariff climbdown, the damaging aftereffects from this turbulence will be felt for some time with the resulting global uncertainty likely to further undermine the UK economy as it already reels from April’s surge in business costs.

“The greater global financial and economic instability caused by the US tariff announcements makes a May rate cut look more likely than not, by further fuelling rate setters’ concerns over the underlying resilience of the UK economy.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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