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Deteriorating labour market unlikely to trigger February rate cut, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 20 Jan 2026

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Tuesday 20 January 2026):

“These figures indicate that the UK’s labour market ended 2025 in poor health as skyrocketing staffing costs and concerns over the Employment Rights Bill increasingly hampered hiring and limited pay awards.

“Though this slowdown in wage growth should gather pace in the coming months as elevated employment costs increasingly restrain pay settlements, it’ll be at the expense of weaker consumer spending – an essential driver of UK economic output.

“The UK jobs market is in a more problematic phase with spiralling labour costs likely to mean notably higher unemployment, with entry level roles most vulnerable given their greater exposure to increased automation and the looming minimum wage rise.

“Though these discouraging figures will reinforce fears among policymakers over the health of the economy, the speed at which the jobs market is deteriorating is unlikely to be enough to trigger an interest rate cut next month.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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* includes parent companies. Source: ICAEW member data March 2025, Interbrand, Best Global Brands 2024.

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