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ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor

Q1: Business confidence recovery thwarted by Iran war.

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National

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UK Business Confidence Monitor: National

  • Report
The latest national Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) shows that business sentiment was on course to move into positive territory in Q1 2026, but the outbreak of the Iran war had a dramatic impact in the final weeks of the survey period, with confidence deteriorating sharply. While businesses reported improved annual domestic sales and exports growth and easing input price inflation compared with Q4 2025, the war introduced significant downside risks to the outlook for the coming year.
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How the government can enable growth Iran war knocks confidence back into negative territory Autumn Budget 2025 About BCM and methodology

UK nations and regions

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Scotland

Q1: Scottish business confidence lifts into positive territory but Iran war poses significant risks to the outlook.

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Wales

Q1: Confidence improves but remains in negative territory in Q1 2026 as Iran war raises risks to the outlook.

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England

Nine regional reports offer insight into business confidence across England. Find out more about your region.

Sectors

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Construction

Q1: Construction remains among the most pessimistic sectors as business challenges mount.

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Energy, Water & Mining

Q1: Confidence improves significantly in Q1 2026, though the Iran war poses a significant risk to sentiment.

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Manufacturing & Engineering

Q1: Business sentiment finally moves into positive territory, but uncertainty remains.

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Retail & Wholesale

Q1: Retail & Wholesale confidence remains deeply negative as higher labour costs pose a major challenge.

International economic updates

Economic Update: Mainland China and South-East Asia

  • Report
The 2025 Q2 Economic Insight Report provides an analysis of the current trends and challenges facing the economies of China, Malaysia, and Singapore. China’s growth outlook is buffeted by the heightened trade tensions with the US, that could worsen existing domestic challenges and further push out the long-drawn property sector adjustment.
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A paper sculpture resembling the Great Wall of China, folded from sheets printed with economic graphs and trend lines, symbolising China’s economy and market volatility.

Economic Update: Middle East

  • Report
The ICAEW Economic Update: Middle East, is a quarterly economic forecast for the region prepared directly for the finance profession.
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