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Effective scenario planning

Preparing for future issues is crucial. However unlikely they may seem, scenario planning for multiple eventualities is key to succeeding where others fail, says Siobhan Soraghan

Economic analysisWe humans learn fast and well, but this can become a limitation. What we figured out worked for us in the past may no longer hold true in the present, never mind the future. Yet we tend to cling to our recipes for success, enjoying the comfort of the familiar.

When we are under threat from change, our higher-level thinking shuts down, diminishing our ability to deal with complexity. Short-term survival takes precedence and danger can seem amplified. We believe we have less time than we really do. This is not conducive for taking advantage of any opportunities that the crisis might afford us.