“October’s rebound is a false dawn for the economy as it mostly reflects the favourable comparison with September when activity was supressed by the Bank Holiday for the Queen’s funeral.
“The positive start to the fourth quarter may not prevent recession with the growing squeeze on incomes likely to drive falls in GDP in November and December, despite a possible boost to consumer activity from the World Cup.
“A half-point interest rate rise on Thursday is expected. However, tightening monetary policy too aggressively could risk worsening the financial outlook for firms and households, and extend the looming downturn.”
Notes to editors:
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