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October’s GDP rise a false dawn for UK economy, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 12 Dec 2022

Responding to the latest UK GDP figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Monday 12 December 2022), Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, said:

“October’s rebound is a false dawn for the economy as it mostly reflects the favourable comparison with September when activity was supressed by the Bank Holiday for the Queen’s funeral.

“The positive start to the fourth quarter may not prevent recession with the growing squeeze on incomes likely to drive falls in GDP in November and December, despite a possible boost to consumer activity from the World Cup.

“A half-point interest rate rise on Thursday is expected. However, tightening monetary policy too aggressively could risk worsening the financial outlook for firms and households, and extend the looming downturn.”


Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841